NYCFC have played all three of the Group A games at the MLS is Back Tournament, but they haven't advanced just yet. They're also not going home either, so all they can do is wait.
NYCFC beat Inter Miami 1-0 on Monday morning to pick up their first win of the tournament (and season), finishing third in the group with three points. The Philadelphia Union and Orlando City SC already clinched the top two spots in Group A, but NYCFC are still alive. The top four of six third-place finishers will advance to the Round of 16.
"We want to get another chance and hopefully we can do it, but it's not in our hands," head coach Ronny Deila told media after the game. "We gave ourselves a chance for it to happen by winning today. We're going to train and prepare that we're playing at least one more game, and hopefully more than one."
The Cityzens' fate depends on further results before NYCFC ends or extends their stay in Orlando. They're one of a handful of teams with three points and hold a minus-2 goal difference, which would be the tiebreaker, while there are still five teams with zero points that could overtake NYCFC with a win and superior goal difference. Only Inter Miami have been eliminated thus far.
Based on where things stand as of Tuesday morning, FiveThirtyEight gives NYCFC just a 26% chance of advancing with those three points. Their odds trail FC Cincinnati (44%), Houston Dynamo (33%) and the Montreal Impact (30%), who are all also on the bubble. They all have a game left, too.
"We're going to keep training and stay ready in case we get through," midfielder Keaton Parks said. "We have to wait possibly until Thursday night, but our minds are the same. We're going to keep dreaming and be ready whether or not we're playing in (the knockout round.)"
There are a number of permutations as to how they can advance, but a simple one starts with the New York Red Bulls beating Cincinnati on Wednesday. Seeing a draw in Houston vs. LA Galaxy on Thursday or a Galaxy win by less than three goals would also help.
For now, all they can do is wait and hope.
