This is the second in a series of 20 short columns focused on the things I'm thinking about as we approach the 20th season of Major League Soccer. I'm going to dig into mostly non-obvious questions here – the tertiary stuff that can become bigger over time – rather than the giant storylines (e.g., How do the Red Bulls replace Henry? What if Ozzie's injury lingers? Is this THE year for TFC?).
The first installment, on the Tommy Thompson Hype Train, is HERE. For the second, we move halfway across the country to North Texas...
Full disclosure: I'm about 80-percent sure I'm picking FC Dallas to win the Western Conference, thus placing them among the favorites for MLS Cup. I just need to talk myself into believing that Mauro Diaz will play a full season as their No. 10, and that Fabian Castillo continues to his trajector from "super-talented kid who can't hit a pass or put a shot on target" to "90-minute, end-to-end terror capable of single-handedly dismantling any defense, no matter scheme or gameplan."
I also need to believe that the Academy kids (FC Dallas' Academy gets the capital "A" no matter the context, since they're a freaking assembly line) – Victor Ulloa, Moises Hernandez and Kellyn Acosta – are each ready to make 2015 better than 2014. I need to believe that Walker Zimmerman can stay healthy next to Matt Hedges. I need to believe there's depth in central midfield, and that Oscar Pareja can eventually become as good at winning games as he is at developing players.
If you follow MLS at all, you're nodding at most, if not all of that. There is one more issue, one just as crucial as all of the above, that may have escaped your attention:
Blas Perez is old. He turns 34 in less than a month, and while he's coming off the best season of his MLS career (11 g, 6a), he also played the most minutes – nearly 2,500 combined between the regular season and playoffs. He'll be asked to match that workload again this year, while adding in summertime duty with Panama in the Gold Cup and dealing with all the grueling travel that's part and parcel of being a Central American superstar.
It is a worry. Perez is integral to FCD's fortunes not just because he's a reliable goalscorer, but also because his vision in and around the area with his back to the goal is McBride-esque:
Normal forwards in our league don't draw three defenders then put a teammate into the box with a single, perfectly weighted touch. Perez, when working with Diaz, does that on the regular.
Working without Diaz is when Perez goes from "integral" to "irreplaceable." His ability to win long-balls (nobody was more direct than Dallas without Diaz in 2014), create chances from anywhere in the final third and – yes – draw tons of fouls defined that team. If Diaz gets hurt, and Perez suddenly gets old, then it's Castillo going 1-vs-10 from equinox to equinox.
That's not a recipe for success, even with a ton of other young talent – including DP forward David Texeira, who is 10 years younger than Perez and nowhere near close to un-seating him as a starter.
So let's consider that one more thing I have to convince myself of before I make my official picks this year: I have to hope Blas Perez won't get old. Dallas fans should feel free to join me in that.
